PC sales were down for a decade, and then the COVID-19 pandemic hit. PC sales skyrocketed in 2020 as the world adjusted to a new reality, and 2021 numbers show the trend continuing. Recent reports from Canalys, IDC, and Gartner show double-digit growth last year, and analysts now believe the bloated PC market will last at least a few more years, regardless of what happens with COVID-19.
The main driver of the PC resurgence is undoubtedly the pandemic. More people than ever are working and learning from home, and demand for PCs has held steady even as businesses and schools try to reopen. Analysts feared that PC growth could fall off a cliff after a sharp rise in 2020, but all three reports point to big numbers. Canalys says PC shipments climbed 14.6% last year, and IDC is in the same range at 14.8%. Gartner is more conservative than others, reporting a 9.9% increase for 2021.
Regardless of who is right, any of these numbers would be good news for PC vendors. 2021 is shaping up to be the best year for PCs since 2013, which was at the start of the long, slow slide. Back then, people were buying more phones and tablets, and today consumers are more likely to keep the same phone for several years. At the same time, even a powerful tablet like the iPad is not flexible enough to complete a full day’s work.
The pandemic has also boosted Chromebook shipments — they’re often the cheapest way to get a capable laptop with a keyboard and trackpad. However, Gartner says Chromebook shipments have declined. In fact, the fourth quarter of 2021 saw weaker numbers across the board compared to the rest of the year (all three reports noted this point). Chromebook demand could be the first to fall as people begin to return to the office, a trend that will eventually affect other PCs as well. It probably won’t be right away, though. Gartner predicts that it will take 2-3 years for PC demand to return to pre-pandemic levels.
The decrease at the end of 2021 may also be due to the continued shortage of chips. There is almost no excess inventory, which is good for the bottom line, but the industry is leaving money on the table. Analysts note that chip supply issues have reduced growth potential, and that could continue through 2022.
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